Abstract

The Gulf of Maine in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean is one of the world’s fastest warming marine regions. Changes in ocean conditions are affecting growth, survival, and distribution of American lobster (Homarus americanus), which supports iconic fisheries along the coast of Maine, USA. In this study, we analyzed 15 years of oral records from the Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtables to explore fishermen’s observations of and responses to social–ecological changes. Fishermen reported an overall shift in lobster biomass further east and offshore, resulting in strategic expansion of fishing seasons and areas. Biomass shifts were thought to be connected to increases in temperature, decreases in salinity, a shift in ocean currents, and a loss of predator species. Fishing strategies were categorized according to five domains of adaptive capacity, but the majority of fishers’ responses fell into two domains: “access to assets” and “diversity and flexibility”. Strategies within these domains included increased expansion into federal lobster fisheries and extension of fishing seasons. Fishermen highlighted data gaps that need to be addressed to meet the challenges of climate change. Fisheries learning exchanges, such as the Climate Roundtables, create social networks that foster knowledge sharing to support the continued viability of local livelihoods.

Introduction

Climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine species globally, resulting in multifaceted impacts on fisheries and coastal communities (Barange and Cochrane 2018; Karp et al. 2019; Green et al. 2021). Environmental stressors occur in the context of numerous other overlapping pressures, including social, economic, political, and regulatory changes (Moerlein and Carothers 2012; Beaudreau et al. 2019). In turn, the ability for fishers and fishing communities to respond depends on a range of social–ecological factors that confer resilience (i.e., “domains of adaptive capacity”; Cinner and Barnes 2019; Green et al. 2021). These factors include access to assets (e.g., technology), flexibility to change strategies, social organization and communication, agency to enact change (e.g., governance), and natural capital (Bennett et al. 2014; Cinner and Barnes 2019; Green et al. 2021). For example, diversification of fishing portfolios (Young et al. 2019), more flexible and responsive management institutions (Golden et al. 2024), and increasing capacity for knowledge sharing (McGreavy et al. 2018) can help to strengthen the resilience of fisheries in the face of climate change.
The Gulf of Maine in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean is considered one of the world’s fastest warming marine regions (Pershing et al. 2015; Saba et al. 2016) and supports major commercial groundfish and shellfish fisheries in the U.S. and Canada (Brewer 2011; Johnson et al. 2014). Over the last 10 years, the Gulf of Maine has shown an increased rate of warming (Shearman and Lentz 2010; Seidov et al. 2021) and future projections of sea surface temperature indicate that warming will intensify in this region (Saba et al. 2016). Changes in ocean conditions have affected growth, survival, distribution, and health of marine organisms (Henderson et al. 2017; Staudinger et al. 2019), including American lobster (Homarus americanus), which plays a vital role in Maine fisheries (Mills et al. 2013; Staudinger et al. 2019). Increased temperatures led to a stock collapse of Southern New England lobster while expanding suitable habitat for lobsters in the Gulf of Maine (Le Bris et al. 2018; Reardon et al. 2018; Goode et al. 2019). A 2012 marine heatwave in the Gulf of Maine warmed waters 3 weeks earlier than historical temperatures, yielding higher lobster fishery landings in summer and fall than in previous years (Mills et al. 2013). Maine lobster fishers have expressed concern about impacts of continued warming on lobster populations, such as shell disease and biomass distribution shifts out of current fishing areas (McClenachan et al. 2020).
In addition to climate change, the Maine lobster fishery is facing environmental, economic, and regulatory pressures that have the potential to impact fishery resiliency and adaptive capacity. Fishery stressors include bait shortages and increased cost of bait (Brewer 2012; McClenachan et al. 2020; Stoll et al. 2022), trap and entry limits to the fishery (Brewer 2012; McClenachan et al. 2020), gear saturation in inshore waters resulting in tangles (Brewer 2013), and gear changes required to reduce North Atlantic right whale entanglements (Myers and Moore 2020; Willse et al. 2022). Additionally, barriers to diversification into other fisheries have been well documented for Maine lobster fishers, who have become increasingly specialized over the last few decades (Hall-Arber et al. 2001; Brewer 2012; Brewer 2013; Johnson et al. 2014; Pershing et al. 2015; Stoll et al. 2017). These issues have implications for coastal communities with strong reliance on lobster fisheries.
Lobster licenses are held in every coastal and island town in Maine (Island Institute 2018) and the lobster fishery contributed $391 million to Maine’s economy in 2022 (Maine DMR 2023a). Beyond economic value, lobster fishing holds cultural significance to coastal Maine communities. Many fishermen consider fishing to be a part of their individual social identity (Johnson et al. 2014) as well as an integral part of community identity and function (Brewer 2013). In a 2013 study that highlighted voices of Maine fishermen, many felt that a fishery was only successful if it could support the broader community (Brewer 2013), especially in Downeast Maine, the easternmost region of the coast where communities are relatively rural, remote, and rely primarily on fishing and fishing-related businesses (Johnson et al. 2014). In these small communities, relationships are often interdependent and mutual support systems exist without formal organization (Brewer 2012; Brewer 2013; Johnson et al. 2014). Therefore, a key component of adaptive capacity may be maintaining and strengthening social networks and knowledge sharing among lobster fishers and fishing communities.
In this study, we examined the social–ecological domains of adaptive capacity in the Maine lobster fishery through the lens of 15 years of fishermen’s knowledge and shared experiences. Although many other studies have explored the changing social–ecological landscape of the Maine lobster fishery (e.g., Brewer 2012; Brewer 2013; Johnson et al. 2014; Stoll et al. 2017; McClenachan et al. 2020; Stoll et al. 2022), this research makes a novel contribution by using a unique dataset: oral records obtained from the Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable. The Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable is an annual event that has taken place since 2007, hosted by the Island Institute, a nonprofit, community development organization focused on sustaining Maine’s island and coastal communities. This event brings together lobster fishers and scientists to informally discuss observations of long-term ecological and fishery-related changes in the Gulf of Maine. We examined recordings of these events over 15 years to better understand how fishermen participating in the Climate Roundtables are responding and adapting to a changing environment. We analyzed the records using a framework developed for small-scale fisheries (Green et al. 2021) to evaluate domains of adaptive capacity and implications for resilience of the Maine lobster fishery.

Methods

Positionality

All members of the author team are current or former residents of New England. Three authors (EM, AHB, and EDS) completed this work as members of a research team at the University of Washington that focuses primarily on small-scale fisheries along the U.S. West Coast and Alaska. Some of us have deep, lifelong connections with coastal Maine, which have shaped our perceptions and interpretations of the social and ecological changes discussed by fishermen during the Climate Roundtable events. The lead author (EM) was born and raised in Downeast Maine and was motivated to deeply explore understandings of change and resilience through the experiences of fishermen in her home communities. EM also completed a fellowship at the Island Institute prior to this study. Two authors (SNA and SB) are employees of the Island Institute and have been the primary coordinators and facilitators of the Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable. They have served as liaisons between the Climate Roundtable participants and the research team. Together, we have aimed to center the voices of Maine fishermen as authentically as possible in this work, while recognizing that our lenses are shaped by our professional backgrounds in research, resource management, and community development.

Fishery context and Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable records

In 2007, the Island Institute hosted the first Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable (hereafter, Climate Roundtables). Fishermen residing in Maine’s three coastal regions—Southern (Kittery to Boothbay Harbor), Midcoast (South Bristol to Stonington), and Downeast (Mount Desert Island to Lubec)—participated in the Climate Roundtables, with most coming from the Midcoast region. The Maine lobster fishery occurs in both state (0–3 nmi) and federal waters (>3–200 nmi). In state waters, Zones A-G run North to South along the Maine coast. State licenses correspond to a specific zone and fishermen must set the majority of their traps in their primary zone. To fish beyond 3 nmi from shore, fishermen must hold a federal license. This allows fishermen to fish anywhere within federal waters (Maine DMR 2023b). All fishermen in the Climate Roundtables hold state lobster fishery licenses, and many hold or previously held federal lobster licenses and other fishery licenses such as scallop, groundfish, shrimp, and alewife. Many fishermen come from a multi-generational fishing family and grew up in the areas in which they currently live and fish. In this paper, the term “fishermen” is used to describe Climate Roundtable participants who currently participate in the lobster fishery. This choice reflects the language that the men and women from the Climate Roundtables used to describe themselves.
In the years 2007–2021, 50 individual fishermen attended the Climate Roundtables. Each annual event hosted 10 fishermen, on average. One fisherman attended more than 10 years, eight attended 5–9 years, eighteen attended 2–4 years, and 23 fishermen participated in only one year. Non-fishing participants included scientists from the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) as well as local nonprofits and academic institutions. Occasionally, participants included other fishermen from outside Maine. The Climate Roundtable is an all-day event that includes multiple sessions. A typical structure includes a morning session (1–3 h) in which fishermen recount the previous year’s fishing season. Conversations range from offshore observations to ex-vessel prices and any other pressing topics of importance. This is usually followed by a lunch break before reconvening for an afternoon session that consists of multiple, shorter presentations on relevant research in the Gulf of Maine.
Audio recordings of Climate Roundtable discussions are maintained and archived by the Island Institute. We were granted permission by the Island Institute, with assent from Climate Roundtable participants, to use the recordings for this study with the understanding that we would maintain files in a secure drive shared only with the research team and remove identifying information about participants from data summaries. For the purpose of this study, content analysis of Climate Roundtable recorded sessions focused on the informal morning conversations and did not include afternoon research presentations. Morning sessions in all years from 2007 to 2021 were transcribed for analysis except 2010 and 2012 for which there were no audio recordings available. Starting conversation topics varied from year to year, depending on who was facilitating the Climate Roundtable, and the open-ended discussions were generally led by the fishermen themselves once started.
The lead author shared preliminary results with Island Institute staff and Climate Roundtable participants and incorporated their feedback into further analysis and revision. The Climate Roundtable participants were provided an opportunity to review the final written manuscript. The use of Climate Roundtable records for research purposes was also reviewed and approved by the University of Washington’s Human Subjects Division of the Institutional Review Board (protocol No. 00017196).

Thematic analysis and domains of adaptive capacity

Transcripts were first read closely and coded inductively by the lead author (EM) to characterize emerging themes (Attride-Stirling 2001; Braun and Clarke 2006) related to environmental change, social-environmental stressors, and fishermen’s strategies or responses (Table 1). The codebook was revised iteratively through discussions with other authors (AHB and EDS). One set of inductive codes was developed to track ecological and oceanographic changes discussed by Climate Roundtable participants (Table 1). This set included codes for observations of species emerging or disappearing, and lobster-specific changes in biomass, health, size, and sex. These codes helped to distill years of observations from fishermen into categories that could help track environmental changes over time and contextualize broader fishery changes. A separate set of inductive codes was generated to track social–ecological stressors and pressures identified by fishermen, as well as their concerns and responses to change (Table 1). Responses, or strategies, were defined as actions taken by fishermen that differed from the ways they had fished historically in response to an experienced pressure. For example, using new types of bait was classified as a response to the stressor of increased costs for traditional bait.
Table 1.
Table 1. Codes and corresponding definitions for inductive coding.
ThemesCorresponding codeDefinition
Environmental observationsClimate-OceanographicAll references to oceanographic indicators of climate change. (SST, freshening, salinity, ocean currents, etc.)
Ecological ChangesEcological changes referenced that are not specifically about lobsters such as new species appearing in Gulf of Maine waters, common historic Gulf of Maine species disappearing or observations of species anomalies (such as various types of sharks, or sea horses).
Lobsters-SizeObservations onf changes in the size of lobsters caught in traps. Also captures conversations around the larval stages of lobsters.
Lobsters-HealthObservations onf the physical health of the lobsters. Commonly, this code captured conversations about observed instances of shell disease.
Lobsters-BiomassObservations ofn the biomass of the lobster population and its location in Gulf of Maine waters.
Lobsters-SexObservations onof ratios of male to female lobsters caught in traps, frequency and size at which females are reproducing, and v-notch observations.
Fishermen’s responses to changeSeasonFishing happening in a new time of year than historically. Example: fishermen setting traps and catching lobsters in months they historically never would have been able to catch lobsters. Specific responses captured by this code include: fishing in a non-historical, new time of year.
LocationFishing happening in a new location regardless of Federal or State waters. Specific responses captured by this code include: fishing in a non-historical, new location; and increasing traps set in federal waters; and buying or selling a federal permit.
BaitObservations around bait type, availability, and price. Specific responses captured by this code include: use of non-traditional bait; fishing fewer traps; and using bait saver bags.
Federal v StateFishing in Federal waters. Also captures conversations about the difference between fishing in State and Federal waters. Specific responses captured by this code include: purchasing gear more suited to federal water fishing; and buying or selling a federal permit.
GovernanceFishermen interacting with governing bodies of the Llobster Ffishery such as NOAA, NFMS, ASMFC, or local Lobster Advisory Councils. Specific responses captured by this code include: interacting with federal, regional, state, or local fishing management processes; inability to join other fisheries; and desire to participate in fisheries for new species appearing in the Gulf of Maine.
EconomicsObservations on related to fishery economics such as profit gains/losses, expenses, ex-vessel prices, co-op profits, and purchasing new boats. Specific responses captured by this code include: entering into other revenue streams; and selling lobster internationally/expanding markets.
Other SpeciesFishing for other Gulf of Maine species such as scallops, alewives or groundfish. Also captured conversations about aquaculture. Specific responses captured by this code include: fishing other species; and diversifying into aquaculture.
Research NeedsQuestions posed by fishermen that they wanted an answer to on scientific or economic topics such as explanations for the cost of bait, or temperature thresholds for lobster larval survival. Specific responses captured by this code include: calls for more research.
Fishery contextFishermen-ConcernsConversations about any fisherman generated concern about the fishery, either individual or community based and for any reason. Includes topics such as generational divide, children’s success, federal fishery, bait shortages, community changes, and more.
Historical AnecdotesObservations that compare the year being discussed to a period prior to the Climate Roundtables. Example: Conversations that start with the phrase "“back in the ‘70s, ‘80s, ‘90s…"” and compares that time to the current year being discussed.

Note: Specific strategies or responses of fishermen associated with the five domains of adaptive capacity in Table 2 are included under the definitions column for the theme “Fishermen's responses to change”.

We then used a deductive coding scheme to map fishermen’s responses (Table 1) to various domains of adaptive capacity (Table 2), following an existing framework for small-scale fisheries (Green et al. 2021). Green et al. (2021) identified five domains of adaptive capacity:
1.
“Access to assets” is defined by resource users’ access to community infrastructure, household material assets, decision-making or regulatory authority, human resources, financial resources, markets, and fishing gear and technology use.
2.
“Diversity and flexibility” encompass strategies related to livelihood diversity, occupational mobility, geographic flexibility, and autonomy for change.
3.
“Learning and knowledge” includes use and application of local ecological knowledge, learning capacity, diversity of knowledge, and risk perception.
4.
“Governance and institutions” refers to the roles of trust, leadership, gender, social capital, regulations, and stakeholder engagement in decision-making and management systems.
5.
“Natural capital” encompasses the natural resources generating ecosystem goods and services.
Table 2.
Table 2. Fishermen responses to environmental, regulatory, and social pressures in the Maine lobster fishery from 2007–2021, categorized by domain of adaptive capacity.
ResponseDomain(s)200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Fishing in non-historical, new locationsDiversity and flexibilityxxxndxnd xxxxx x 
Fishing in non-historical, new time of yearDiversity and flexibilityxxxndxndxx  xx x 
Increasing traps set in federal watersDiversity and flexibilityxxxnd nd xxxxx x 
Use of non-traditional bait (this covers bait shortages and cost mechanisms of change)Diversity and flexibility, Access to assets, Natural capitalxxxndxndxx  xxxx 
Purchasing gear more suited to federal water fishingAccess to assetsxx ndxnd x  xx   
Call for more researchLearning and knowledge, Governance and institutionsxxxndxnd xxx xxxx
Interacting with federal, regional, state, or local fishing management processesGovernance and institutionsxxxnd nd xx  x   
Buying or selling a federal permitDiversity and flexibility, Access to assetsx xnd nd  x      
Inability to join other fisheriesDiversity and flexibility, Governance and institutions, Natural capital x nd nd xxx x   
Fishing fewer trapsDiversity and flexibility x nd nd  x      
Entering into other revenue streamsDiversity and flexibility, Access to assets   nd nd  x      
Fishing other speciesDiversity and flexibility, Access to assets, Natural capital  xnd nd xxx  x  
Diversifying to aquacultureDiversity and flexibility, Access to assets, Natural capital   nd nd xx    x 
Use of bait saver bagsDiversity and flexibility, Access to assets, Learning and knowledge   nd nd     xxx 
Selling lobsters internationally- expanding marketsAccess to assets   nd nd    x  x 
Desire to participate in fisheries for new species appearing in the Gulf of MaineDiversity and flexibility, Governance and institutions, Natural capital   nd nd  xx x   

Note: Non-shaded boxes do not indicate that a response did not occur, rather it did not come up as a discussion topic in the Climate Roundtable that year. “nd” notation indicates no data was available for that year.

Fishermen’s responses, or lack of ability to respond, to various stressors were conceptualized as either adding capacity or taking away capacity from a given domain. For example, a fisherman moving to a new fishing location as species shift due to warming waters is categorized as adding to the “Diversity and flexibility” domain of adaptive capacity. Taken together, the presence or absence of responses within each of these domains affects the overall adaptive capacity of individuals and communities (Bennett et al. 2014; Green et al. 2021), and subsequently how they are able to respond in a rapidly changing fishery.

Results

In this section, we first summarized key social–ecological pressures discussed by Climate Roundtable participants that are impacting the lobster fishery. Then, we synthesized fishermen’s responses to change within the domains of adaptive capacity.

Social–ecological pressures on the fishery

Maine lobstermen are facing a variety of pressures on the fishery that are a result of changes in environmental, socio-economic, and regulatory conditions. Many environmental changes were discussed by participants (Appendix A, Table A.1.) with prevalent themes highlighted here. Increases in ocean temperature were observed by fishermen in eleven out of the 12 years for which data were available. Climate Roundtable participants discussed changes in the condition of lobster shells, including the timing of molting (“sheds”) and prevalence of shell disease. Historically, fishermen could accurately predict the week when a shed would occur, but the timing and frequency of shedding events had become more unpredictable in recent years. Participants noted that greater unpredictability in timing for lobster sheds has financial implications for the fishery, as there is a higher ex-vessel price for lobsters with hard shells compared to lobsters with soft shells. Fishermen also noted changes in size of the lobsters, particularly an increase in short lobsters and undersized females with eggs (called “eggers”). This was a stand-out observation for many fishermen due to the historical understanding that a female lobster needed to have grown to at least the minimum size requirement before she could reproduce. Climate Roundtable participants also discussed broader changes in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, highlighting increased presence of jellyfish, salps, and black sea bass, and decreased presence of historically common species such as dogfish and sea urchins.
Beyond environmental pressures, the fishery is also facing socio-economic and regulatory pressures. Climate Roundtable participants highlighted economic issues, such as an increase in the cost of baitfish and challenges in accessing bait, and social issues, such as a generational divide between older fishermen who remembered periods of historic low lobster abundance and younger fishermen who have only ever experienced a boom in the lobster population. Participants also emphasized the ongoing challenges of working waterfront loss along the coast, which has been well documented elsewhere (e.g., Island Institute 2009; Johnson et al. 2014). Regulatory pressures, such as an increase in gear restrictions and the implementation of seasonal areas closures from the North Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (FTC Atlantic large whale take reduction plan regulations 2022), generated much concern about the continued viability of the fishery during 2017 Climate Roundtable discussions and continues to be an issue of deep tension. Other emerging pressures identified by fishermen include the proposal to develop the Gulf of Maine as a zone for large offshore wind arrays which introduces a competing interest for ocean use in an area that has historically been dominated by fishing (https://www.maineoffshorewind.org/road-map/).
Taken altogether, these combined pressures are motivating a variety of fishing strategies that fishermen are employing to maintain continued viability of fishing as their livelihood. The following section describes fishermen’s responses to multifaceted fishery pressures as they connect to the five domains of adaptive capacity.

Fishing strategies and adaptive capacity domains

Fishing strategies were identified and categorized according to the five domains of adaptive capacity (Green et al. 2021). Sixteen different strategies or responses were identified, ranging across all five domains. Multiple responses fell into more than one domain and prevalent themes were repeated across multiple years (Table 2). Responses more frequently fell within the “Access to assets” and “Diversity and flexibility” domains. In some instances, responses could be associated directly with specific changes in ocean conditions or lobster populations. However, many of the strategies fishermen are employing are in response to multiple, interacting changes (e.g., environmental, socioeconomic, and regulatory), making it difficult to separate environmental drivers from other factors. Where appropriate, connections between specific environmental changes and fishermen’s responses have been identified in each of the five domains sections below.

Access to assets

Strategies discussed by Climate Roundtable participants that fell into the domain of “Access to assets” included: using non-traditional bait, making bait adjustments based on the cost or availability of bait, using bait saver bags, purchasing a boat suited for offshore fishing, buying and selling federal lobster fishing permits, fishing non-lobster species, diversifying into aquaculture, entering other revenue streams that are lobster fishery adjacent, and expanding the lobster market internationally (Table 2). The most frequent response in this domain revolved around bait shortages and high costs that frequently occurred on a year-to-year basis.
Bait discussions were a major topic of concern in 2014, due to the combined pressures of high cost and low availability of bait. For example, high costs of Pacific rockfish bait in 2014 resulted in fishermen switching to something more accessible and less expensive but also less preferred, such as pig or cow hide. One fisherman noted how prices of bait were becoming “cost prohibitive” and another fisherman described bait bills as reaching an amount he was no longer able to afford (i.e., $500 to $600 a day for menhaden and redfish, which he had used for the past 20 years). High bait costs and limited bait availability resulted in some fishermen choosing to set fewer traps or simply put less bait in their traps, while others diversified to other non-fish sources of bait. There was little consensus on how best to deal with bait shortages and high costs, but multiple fishermen expressed their concern about using pig and cow hide as bait for lobster traps, citing concerns around marketability and image of the fishery, as well as unknowns surrounding the potential to spread pathogens by using alternative bait.
Another strategy that came up in multiple years was the trend of fishermen purchasing boats upwards of $800 000 dollars to suit the year-round style of fishing that occurs in federal waters. The federal water lobster fishery has emerged in recent years as a deep water, offshore, year-round fishery that typically requires a larger boat that is more suited to longer trips in potentially inclement weather. Many fishermen expressed how younger fishermen were entering into the offshore lobster fishery and had purchased expensive boats generating high monthly boat payments and resulting in a need to fish harder to meet their overhead costs. On the profits generated by fishing offshore, one fisherman said in 2013, “But offshore was stupid, ridiculous. You know, unbelievable, the best year I've ever had. Most money I've ever made”. This financial boost of the offshore fishery was echoed again with one fisherman saying in 2017, “Our co-op was up 10% this year over last. But almost everybody that fished inside 10 miles was down 10%. The ones that were outside [offshore] made the difference up”.
Yet in the same year, fishermen expressed concern about how this expansion and the huge overhead costs of offshore fishing would impact the fishery should the offshore biomass of lobsters disappear or collapse. In this quote from an older fisherman in 2017, the uneven access to assets across generations was made clear, indicating that younger fishermen are more likely to purchase large boats, fish offshore year-round and sustain larger bait bills regardless of how older fishermen are faring: “…you got these young guys who don't care about boat payments, $2,000 a month. They gonna go like we did with twelve- or fourteen-hundred traps before we went to 800. They can afford to pay $100,000 for bait. And they're gonna say to you, if you can't afford it, don't go”.

Diversity and flexibility

Responses in the “Diversity and flexibility” domain included fishermen shifting to new geographic locations to fish (both into federal waters and into new areas in state waters), expanding to fish year-round or set traps in non-historic seasons, diversifying into aquaculture or other fisheries, or expressing frustration with lack of opportunity to diversify, and entering fishing-adjacent revenue streams such as seafood marketing (Table 2).
Of all the strategies in this domain, fishing in new locations and new seasons was mentioned the most often. Fishing in new seasons and locations does not require new fishing gear, but may require purchasing a federal lobster permit. Fishermen attributed this strategy to the shifting of lobster biomass into deeper waters as well as further Downeast. A conversation from 2018 highlights the growth of the offshore fishery in response to shifting biomass and the uncertainty fishermen experienced about the underlying mechanisms driving changes in lobster distribution:
Speaker 1: I think that offshore fishery is a question though. I mean, you know 20, 30 years ago there was a handful of people that went out there in the fall and they did okay for 4 or 5 weeks and then they'd go out in the spring, and they'd do okay. Now there seems to be a body of lobsters that wasn't there 25 years ago that's now there that's big.
Speaker 2: Do you think that 25 years ago there was no fishermen there so all these lobsters kept gaining and gaining and gaining?
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think they were settling out there then. I think something's changed. The ones I've talked to that have fished there a long time, they never saw short lobsters out there. They didn't see little lobsters out there. They saw big lobsters out there. When they went out they didn't have to measure lobsters, they were beautiful stuff…what is going on now is there's settlement out there because there's short lobsters out there. In 600 ft of water there's short lobsters where I don't think there was 30 years ago, temperature-wise, something has changed to allow that offshore.
Warming waters that stretch the summer season out into the fall months also created an extension of the historical fishing season into September, October, and November in many years, due to an increased presence of lobsters. This resulted in fishermen leaving traps in the water for longer than usual timeframes. In a conversation from 2014, multiple fishermen referenced their own shift in fishing patterns, mentioning that they spent only a few weeks fishing in state waters, choosing to fish the rest of the year in federal waters. This transition to offshore waters was described as “a trend the whole state is seeing”, with one fisherman noting that their “area inshore [was] dropping and offshore [was] producing more than [they'd] ever seen”. In 2015, one fisherman noted, “Whereas you know, 15 years ago we'd get November, December, January into February maybe, when you took your traps up in the spring, they'd be empty. There'd be nothing in them. Now, when it's time to bring them in, you're still catching lobsters, there's still little ones in them, you know. The effort, the focus has shifted offshore because that's where the bulk of the lobsters is now”.

Learning and knowledge

The primary strategy within the “Learning and knowledge” domain discussed by Climate Roundtable participants was pushing for more research to fill knowledge gaps about links between climate processes and lobster survival (Table 2).
The push for more research to answer questions about climate change and lobster populations appeared in conversation every year except 2013 and 2017. While many questions arose over the years, one topic that surfaced year after year circled around patterns and locations of lobster larvae settlement as fishermen started to move into offshore waters to fish year-round. In 2018, one fisherman said, “I don't think they're [Maine DMR larval survey] looking in the right places for them…If the old line, say 10 fathom, it was warm enough for them, if that line is gone out to 15 fathom or 20 fathom the amount of bottom you’ve opened up for lobsters to settle on is exponentially larger…I think that the lobsters are settling which is why we’re seeing so many small ones but they’re not being sampled because they’re not looking out deep enough”. Here, this fisherman is explaining how warming waters could be expanding the potential range of larval settlement into deeper waters noting that the current larval surveys did not cover those deeper benthic environments.
Other calls for more research included the desire to get a better picture of what the offshore lobster biomass actually is, as exemplified in this exchange from 2017:
Speaker 1: Well, that’s the other thing. I mean, there’s the elephant in the room. How big is the offshore, you know, biomass? I mean obviously, for what we see coming in it’s big, but is it sustainable? A couple of my kids are out there, their lobsters are this big out there, which that never was before. Obviously, there’s not a lot of ground fish, I would say, but what’s going on? Is that a sustainable population? Or is that…?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, that’s one of the big questions. So, you know, there are two ways of thinking about that. Are those little guys settling out way up there? Or are they settling in shallow and moving out deep, and it’s hard to imagine, some of these places are pretty far from shore.
Speaker 3: The difference between those two scenarios has some really important implications for sustainability.
Again, fishermen linked these questions to patterns of settlement, as settlement numbers are what drive future projections of the fishery and are the basis for calculating the biomass of Maine lobster. Calls for research arose out of the desire to reduce the uncertainty around lobster biomass and stock size for both long- and short-term planning, as well to ensure a continued fishery for future generations of lobstermen.

Governance and institutions

Responses within the “governance and institutions” domain included an interest in the Maine DMR and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) pursuing more lobster and climate specific research to fill knowledge gaps that fishermen identified, the lack of opportunities to meet at Lobster Advisory Councils (LAC), fishermen attending NMFS meetings or sitting on panels and committees as fishermen representatives, and a desire to have more input on starting a fishery for new abundant species showing up in the Gulf of Maine (Table 2).
Fishermen expressed a need for better alignment of management actions, such as allocation and permitting, with year-to-year-predictions of biomass for species that are expanding their geographic range into Gulf of Maine waters as a way to help support fishermen’s efforts to diversify their fishing portfolio. Fishermen expressed a desire to diversify into the longfin squid and black sea bass fisheries, but felt restricted by management actions stemming from a lack of adequate scientific data or the challenges of acquiring a permit, as exemplified in this quote from 2015:
So if you're a diversified fisherman, you can look at where to put your effort in what distribution to kind of be the safest. So the reason that these permits might become available is because the Mid Atlantic Council is addressing latent effort in their fishery. So it doesn't do us any good to have to get an allocation and have a permit and then have latent effort in our fishery. So like if you knew, that's my thing, like we had a lot of squid a couple of years ago, we didn't have any last year, maybe we'll have some next year. But if you could kind of look at sort of, some kind of prediction and be like “well the water's gonna warm up and they like this, you know, environment” then you know that we could go somewhere with that.
Conversations such as these point towards a desire amongst fishermen to have more flexible and responsive management that could pivot with year-to-year variability that is becoming increasingly common in the Gulf of Maine.

Natural capital

In the case of the Climate Roundtables, the domain of natural capital included strategies in response to stressors and pressures that directly connected to availability and abundance of natural resources needed to fish lobster. Strategies in this domain included diversifying to aquaculture, a desire to expand into new fisheries as opportunities arise (e.g., due to range shifts), and access to bait (Table 2).
Of particular interest in this domain was the emphasis on aquaculture as the “most commercially attractive emerging fishery” (2015 Climate Roundtable participant). Maine has seen an increase in low-impact, small scale aquaculture in recent years which includes mussel, clam, oyster, and kelp farming along the coast. Fishermen in the 2015 Climate Roundtable expressed how they would envision the structure and limited expansion of Maine aquaculture, to reflect similar values and culture of small-scale fisheries:
Speaker 1: And I think that one of the things that I’ve been thinking about is how do you, how do you describe the vision for aquaculture in that way that, that is we want.
Speaker 2: Small scale.
Speaker 3: We want it to look like the lobster fishery.
Speaker 4: Small scale fishermen owned.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that may not be exactly owner-operator, but that’s the set of values and, you know, half a million-dollar investment is a big investment in aquaculture, but that’s the scale that we’re, we’re talking about, you know.
Fishermen referenced the collapse of the Maine groundfish fishery as both a mechanism for the boom of lobster catches in the past 15 years, but also as contributing to a lack in the ability to diversify into other fisheries. Urchin diving and the Maine shrimp fishery have also suffered stock collapses in the past 20 years. While the urchin fishery has been periodically closed on a year-to-year basis or opened with low quotas, a moratorium was placed on the shrimp fishery following the 2013 season.

Discussion

Management of fisheries so that they are “climate-ready” is gaining traction (e.g., Bell et al. 2013; Busch et al. 2016; Karp et al. 2019; Bell et al. 2020), yet requires a comprehensive understanding of dynamic, complex social–ecological systems. Other studies have explored the role of co-management and expanding partnerships with the private sector, fishing industries, and academia to offset some of the capacity constraints of current fishery management systems (Wilson et al. 2018; Holsman et al. 2019; Lomonico et al. 2021). This study highlights the important role of holding space for dialogues among fishery practitioners and knowledge holders to share personal and collective strategies to respond to change. In the Climate Roundtable discussions, fishermen highlighted ways they are adopting alternatives to the fishing strategies they may have historically favored to meet the increased uncertainty and unpredictability head on. Additionally, fishermen are engaged in data collection and using local observations of currents, temperatures, and ecological patterns to develop strategic actions to meet the challenges of climate change.

Strategies in response to social–ecological change

A dominant narrative that emerged from the Climate Roundtables focused on a trend towards expanding the seasonality of the fishery from a spring, summer, and fall fishery into a year-round fishery, while simultaneously expanding the geographic range of the fishery into deeper, federal waters. With this, fishermen are directly responding to the shift in lobster biomass by capitalizing on the recent feasibility of a year-round, offshore fishery. There remains uncertainty about the ecological mechanisms for the biomass shift, but Climate Roundtable participants shared their observations of increasing water temperatures in the nearshore environment, which may drive a shift of settlement of lobster larvae into deeper waters that historically would have been too cold but are now within a suitable range for settlement (McManus et al. 2023). While studies have linked impaired larval development and physiological stress to temperature increases (e.g., Byrne 2011; Quinn 2017), fishermen called for additional research on the connections between warming and the post-settlement stage for lobster.
Climate Roundtable participants also discussed no longer being able to predict various important seasonal cues within the lobster fishery, or no longer being able to rely on fishing locations that were once predictable simply because the lobsters were no longer there. This sentiment is also reflected in a 2019 study that noted fishermen’s concerns about decreased predictability in molt phenology (Staples et al. 2019). The timing of molting events for lobsters in the Gulf of Maine may be correlated with temperatures across different seasons, but the relationship is variable and there are likely additional factors driving this timing (Staples et al. 2019). Fishermen’s observations of range expansion for black sea bass and other species have also been well documented in scientific literature (Thomas et al. 2017; McMahan et al. 2020; Slesinger et al. 2021). Alongside species range shifts and expansions, management structures are grappling with how to account for movement of fish across jurisdictional boundaries (e.g., Dubik et al. 2019).
Despite this uncertainty, expanding seasonality of the fishery and geographic range have been the dominant responses of fishermen to lobster biomass shifts. These strategies have been facilitated in large part by the current management structure of the lobster fishery. Size-based management in the lobster fishery restricts the upper and lower size limits of harvestable lobster, but does not cap the number of lobsters harvested. This creates opportunity for fishermen to fish year-round and make flexible in-season decisions based on their own finances, knowledge, and capacity to fish. Fishing year-round and in federal waters requires little gear innovation, making expansion of the lobster fishery more accessible than diversifying into fisheries for new target species (e.g., black sea bass). Fisheries along the northeastern United States are experiencing similar species range shifts, alongside corresponding spatial shifts in the fisheries; however, the ability for fishers to shift in proportion to their target species is constrained by economic and regulatory factors (Pinsky and Fogarty 2012). Current management strategies being used to mitigate these changes, such as quota reallocation and landings flexibility in the Northeast summer flounder fishery, have also raised concerns about equity, efficiency, and the impact on local economies (Dubik et al. 2019). Greater cooperation across jurisdictions (e.g., joint management of shifting species between regions) and development of more nimble, proactive, and adaptive governance structures may facilitate opportunities for diversification and participation in emerging fisheries.
Diversification of fishing portfolios has become an increasingly important component of resiliency for harvesters experiencing overlapping environmental, economic, and regulatory pressures (Berkes et al. 2002; Pinsky and Mantua 2014; Beaudreau et al. 2018). As climate-driven impacts to fisheries become more common, including catastrophic climate shocks resulting in fishery closures (e.g., Peterson Williams et al. 2022; Szuwalski et al. 2023), diversification can be an important tool to help fishermen build their adaptive capacity. However, fishers’ ability to diversify can be limited by institutional barriers to enter new fisheries (Knapp 2011; Donkersloot and Carothers 2016; Beaudreau et al. 2019). Additionally, individual response diversity of fishers—and desire to diversify—can result in a mix of fishing portfolio strategies (Daures et al. 2009; Beaudreau et al. 2018). A study of Maine fishers found substantial heterogeneity in fishers’ degree of specialization, with 66% of commercial fishers holding a license for just one fishery, but over 600 unique combinations of license holdings observed across the fleet (Stoll et al. 2017).
With the collapse of most groundfish stocks as well as the closure of the shrimp fishery in Maine, lobster fishing has emerged as the dominant fishery in the region (Zhang and Chen 2007). A lack of competing fisheries, coupled with a boom in the lobster biomass in the Gulf of Maine, has led to intense specialization for lobster (Steneck et al. 2011). However, the Southern New England lobster fishery collapsed over this same period (LeBris et al. 2018) and concerns have been raised about the long-term resilience of the Maine lobster fishery (Steneck et al. 2011; Henry and Johnson 2015). Specialization can be a lucrative decision, leading to higher earnings when target species are abundant (e.g., Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery, Anderson et al. 2017), but is a riskier long-term strategy (Beaudreau et al. 2019). Despite the risk of specialization, nearly all strategies Climate Roundtable participants identified in response to social-environmental pressures are still aimed towards continued lobster fishing. Discussions of exiting the lobster fishery only appeared in conversation a handful of times. While the Maine lobster fishery is known for close ties between livelihood and personal identity (Brewer 2012), this is not unique to this region and could explain some of the drive to maintain specialization. For example, fishers on the West Coast of the United States with a strong sense of identity related to fishing were less likely to move to a non-fishing related occupation (Holland et al. 2020). Furthermore, fishing identity was more important than job satisfaction in determining the decision to remain in a fishing occupation (Holland et al. 2020). Intrinsic motivations and values related to fishing, such as a desire for autonomy and a sense of connection within a fishing community, can be important drivers in individuals’ decisions to remain in a fishery facing a host of pressures (Christy et al. 2021). Ties to place and tradition can also be strong motivators to continue in a fishery; the Maine lobster fishery operates as a multi-generational system, in which many who fish today are the third or fourth generation of fishers in their family, often fishing in the same waters as generations past (Brewer 2012).

Climate Roundtables as a forum for knowledge exchange

The Maine lobster fishery has been a focal point of social science research for decades (Hall-Arber et al. 2001; Brewer 2013; Johnson et al. 2014; Stoll et al. 2017; McClenachan et al. 2020; Stoll et al. 2022). Much of that research has been focused on short-term insights of the fishery through individual interviews. The uniqueness of the Climate Roundtables comes from both the time frame covered by the dataset as well as in the community that has been built amongst fishermen who have attended the Climate Roundtables since their inception in 2007. Research on “fisheries learning exchanges,” such as the Climate Roundtables, shows that social networks created through these exchanges encourages continued knowledge sharing beyond the event, as well as an opportunity to build more effective participatory conservation strategies that support the continuation of local livelihoods (Heyman and Stronza 2011; Cohen et al. 2012; Stacey et al. 2015; Thompson et al. 2017). In the 2007 Climate Roundtable, many fishermen were reluctant to associate any changes they had been witnessing on the water to climate change (referring to it as global warming at the time), but by the later years fishermen were communicating findings from their own temperature monitors. They were also exchanging ideas about how best to communicate the importance of science to their colleagues and how to share the message of climate change impacts on the future of the lobster fishery. Many of the Climate Roundtable participants have been attending since the start of the forum and have come to rely on the event to share knowledge with other fishermen along the coast.
An important consideration in interpreting results from this study is that the fishermen who participated in the Climate Roundtables are a select group whose perspectives are not necessarily representative of fishermen in this region overall. Many participants have been fishing for decades and come from multigenerational fishing families. Their long-term experience has given them perspectives on boom and bust cycles of the lobster fishery, as well as other fisheries they once participated in, in contrast to younger lobstermen who have spent much of their fishing career in a high yield lobster fishery. These experiences shape how they perceive risk and change and inform their choices. Many of these fishermen are currently active in their local LACs and have been engaged at the highest levels of management and regulation in the lobster fishery. Insights from Island Institute staff who facilitate the Climate Roundtables indicated that fishermen attending the roundtables are active proponents of climate adaptation, mitigation, and research. Thus, there may be other views and concerns that are not reflected in these dialogues. A separate study on climate change perceptions looking across all of New England's fisheries harvesters indicated survey respondents that participate in the lobster fishery, on average, view their risk due to climate change to be moderately low while their adaptive capacity to be moderately high (Runnebaum et al. 2023). At the same time, a majority of survey respondents stated that climate change was having a negative impact on their fishery and were concerned about that impact (Runnebaum et al. 2023). These differing perceptions of the impacts to climate change on the lobster fishery are not immediately clear from the perspective of Climate Roundtable participants and could be further explored through future work.
In James Acheson’s now well-known book The Lobster Gangs of Maine, he describes a culture of territorial and secretive fishermen, who operate in small “gangs” that are generally delineated geographically by harbors or towns (Acheson 1988). Other studies have tended to echo this sentiment, emphasizing the individualistic and often isolated nature of the lobster fishery (Acheson 1972; Acheson and Brewer 2000; Brewer 2011). In contrast, the Climate Roundtables push back at that narrative, instead making space for fishermen coastwide to join and share knowledge and experiences. While disagreements do occur in the Climate Roundtables, there is little evidence of a hierarchy amongst fishermen present and each year new fishermen are welcomed into the conversation. In 2007, when fishermen were asked how they felt about attending their first Climate Roundtable, one fisherman responded by saying: “The beauty of this forum is that it is small enough so there is some give and take. I went to the town meeting and that was so big you didn’t get to burrow into any one subject”.

Choosing a way forward

The Climate Roundtable records reveal a depth of care lobster fishermen have for sustaining the fishery and a way of life for themselves and future generations, for their communities, and for the ocean. Beyond the words spoken there is tension, wry humor, frustration, fear, and collective memory held in stories of the past. There is hope too: for collaboration and collective action, for positive change and growth. As the waters of the Gulf of Maine change, so too will those who rely on them. That change is not a choice. But the choice that remains is how to change: will it be slowly and with resistance? Will it be reactive and unprepared? Will it be with self-agency, or will it be mandated? These are the questions fishermen are asking themselves and their communities. The Climate Roundtables highlight the voices of fishermen as caretakers for the ocean and for their communities, as those whose knowledge of place will be vital as baselines shift and dynamic management is increasingly needed.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtable participants for the time, care, and knowledge they have shared over the last 15 years. Thank you to Phil Levin for a thoughtful and thorough review of this manuscript and to Catalina Burch for support and encouragement throughout the research. We appreciate early feedback and guidance on research ideas from Josh Stoll. Thanks to three anonymous reviewers whose thoughtful comments helped improve this paper. EM was funded by the North Pacific Marine Resources Term Fellowship, the Dayton Lee Alverson Fellowship, and the UW School of Marine and Environmental Affairs.

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Appendix A. Ecosystem changes discussed during the Maine Fishermen’s Climate Roundtables, 2007–2021

Table A.1.
Table A.1. Observed ecosystem changes from 2007–2021.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

cover image FACETS
FACETS
Volume 9Number 1January 2024
Pages: 1 - 13
Editor: Anne K. Salomon

History

Received: 27 October 2023
Accepted: 6 May 2024
Version of record online: 21 August 2024

Data Availability Statement

Data generated or analyzed during this study are not available due to the nature of this research. The raw data for this manuscript consist of audio recordings and transcripts from meetings that were not open to the public due to the sensitivity of the topics related to fishing locations and practices. Providing raw data publicly would compromise the confidentiality of the participants and lead to non-compliance with the institutional review boards that approved this work.

Key Words

  1. diversification
  2. adaptive capacity
  3. climate change
  4. climate-ready fisheries
  5. fishers’ knowledge

Sections

Subjects

Authors

Affiliations

University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, US
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, and Writing – review & editing.
University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, US
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – original draft, and Writing – review & editing.
Suzanne N. Arnold
Island Institute, 386 Main Street, PO Box 648, Rockland, ME, 04841, USA
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Data curation, Resources, and Writing – review & editing.
Sam Belknap
Island Institute, 386 Main Street, PO Box 648, Rockland, ME, 04841, USA
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Data curation, Resources, and Writing – review & editing.
University of Washington, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, US
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Methodology, and Writing – review & editing.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization: EM, AHB, SNA, SB, EDS
Data curation: SNA, SB
Formal analysis: EM
Funding acquisition: AHB
Methodology: EM, AHB, EDS
Resources: SNA, SB
Supervision: AHB
Visualization: EM
Writing – original draft: EM, AHB
Writing – review & editing: EM, AHB, SNA, SB, EDS

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The authors have no competing interests to declare.

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